Primary Model Predicted Trump’s 2016 Historic Win, Who Do They Winning In 2020?

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In 2016, when the polls, pundits, the Democrats mainstream media cohorts and forecasters were all predicting a landslide victory for Hillary Clinton, the PRIMARY MODEL was practically alone in predicting Donald Trump’s historic victory.

In 2016, the Primary Model gave Donald Chance an 87% chance of beating Hillary Clinton.

As for 2020, their models show that President Trump has a 91% chance of beating Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election.

While that prediction may have sounded ludicrous just weeks ago when Joe Biden held a double-digit lead in most national polls. It’s far more solid now, as the latest polling confirmed what we’ve been reporting for the past week.

In the midwestern swing states that once formed the Democrats’ solid “blue wall” — and which Trump flipped red in 2016 — Biden’s once double-digit lead has all but vanished.

Among black and Hispanic voters the news is even worse for Joe Biden, as Trump has made substantial gains over his 2016 support.

Electoral College 

While the Democrat mainstream media cohorts screech that Joe Biden has won because he’s leading in the national polls.

They know all too well that America chooses the winner of the Presidential election by the Electoral College vote.

According to the Primary Model, the final Electoral College vote tally has Trump winning with 362 votes, and Joe Biden coming in a distant second with only 176 votes.  

Electoral college Trump 362, Biden 176

RELATED STORY: Update 10/27 Latest Odds To Win Electoral College Vote

Who Is The Primary Model?

The Primary Model has been predicting Presidential elections since 1912 and has been correct 25 out of the last 27 presidential elections.

Their misses were the 1960 presidential election between John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon, one of the closest presidential elections, and 2000, when the late count in Florida handed Bush the victory; still, Al Gore wound up winning the popular vote.  

Their statistical model relies on presidential primaries and, in addition, on an election cycle as predictors of the vote in the general election, and has been calibrated to predict the Electoral College vote.  

RELATED STORY: Update 10/27 Latest Odds To Win Electoral College Vote